May 14 2012
Canes ’11-’12 End of Season Grades Defense up first! #Canes #NHL
It’s that time of year again! The playoffs are down to the final four and are exciting as ever. I will save my always wrong predictions on those until later and focus now on the Canes. The team finished 33-33-16 good for 82 points. On paper that LOOKS like .500 but it’s not. The 16 is overtime losses which is quite annoying for a loyal fan. All year we knew that if the game got to overtime they were as good as done. If they would have won a little over half of these games they would have been in the playoffs, but as I always say, a team like this wouldn’t have gotten far so I am happier with the better draft pick then paying for playoff tickets and having the team get killed by the Rangers in the first round.
Some quick stats
–Power play was 16.7% good for the bottom half of the league.
–Penalty Kill was 80.6% good for bottom third of the league (not good), but the saving grave was that they scored 12 short handed goals second in the league only to the Devils.
The season’s positive was that we got rid of Maurice as coach and brought in Kirk Muller behind the bench. He has brought a great up tempo style but focusing on clearing out the rebounds from in front of the next and working hard at both ends of the ice. The team looked great after they got used to his style (about 10 games in) and played real well the rest of the year. There is definately a ton to be positive about going forward and I will talk more about that at the end of these articles.
So now here is the grades for this year’s defensemen. Since I did this last year I will put what my prediction was for last year and last year’s grade and then my grade for this year and outlook for next year.
Last year’s Grade C- My prediction/outlook for this year– McBain is obviously here to stay and at 23 he’s got plenty of time to grow. I am going to be optimistic with him and say I think we will see a better first half next year, as usual providing they put something around him on the blue line. He will need to step up defensively if he is going to get prime ice time next year.
McBain didn’t wow anyone this year and yet didn’t make himself a liability on the blue line. He’s been a 4th/5th d-man who logs good mins at the point on the PP. He managed 8 Goals (5PP) and 19 Assists (27 points) in 76 games. His Plus/Minus of -7 was among the better of the D-Men on the team but that’s a bit deceptive. Not being a top 4 D-man most of the year he was n’t tasked with primo minutes at primo times so it’a a bit hard to guage. He is a guy right now who isn’t a top 2 D man but you can tell that some day he might very well be, as he continues to make good strides.
Grade B- While not spectacular on the blue line McBain does what the Canes ask him to. He’s gotten better each year and you don’t cringe when he is out there. Give him 2 or 3 more years of this growth and you will have a very useful 2/3 D-Man for sure.
Outlook –> Next year all depends on what the Canes do with the likes of Bryan Allen, and if they move Pitkanen. If they can keep enough guys on the roster where McBain isn’t tasked with too much ice time and he continues to be the 4/5th D-man in this corps then he will continue to grow. I don’t think he can be a guy who logs 22+ mins a night yet. I see them doing this and him having a good season. I think he has a good year getting to -2 and breaks the 10 goal plateau.
Last year’s Grade B My prediction/outlook for this year–> Allen is signed next year for 2.9 mil against the cap. I think he’s good value for the money and a great start for the back end to work with next year. Happy to see him in a Canes uni for at least one more year.
This year– Allen did this year what he has become known for. A big, solid D-Man who can cover his own end and bring the pain with some hits. He got some great chemistry with Tim Gleason about mid season and the two of them became a shutdown pair going up against other teams best lines game in and game out. He played in all 82 games and was only a Minus 1 on the year. He even managed to score that one goal I wanted him to score last year. He had a respectable 13 assists 111 hits and a nice 188 blocked shots.
Grade A- He might have had some bad games here and there, 3 seperate 3 game stretches where he was -4 or worse, but all in all he was a defensive force. He’s easily the best pure defensive defenseman on the team and I want him to be here for long term. When he’s out there you know he’s going to be in position and make people pay for trying to get near the net.
Outlook–> Unfortunately he’s an unrestricted free agent. This is a hot button topic for me b/c I think Rutherford should have been talking to him ALL YEAR to make sure he can re-sign him. The team NEEDS Allen on it and needs to be able to keep him. If not then they should have dealt him for the 1st round pick he would have undoubtedly brought back at the deadline. I want them to deal Pitkanen for whatever ANYONE will pay and give his money to Allen to keep him here long term. I don’t see if happening. I hope I am wrong. If I am correct it wil lbe YET ANOTHER way Rutherford has failed in the last few years to manage the roster going forward (Add him to the Whitney debacle list).
Last year’s Grade B My prediction/outlook for this year–> Like Allen here as well Gleason is signed for next year. At 2.75 mil for one more year, he will look to improve on his penalty killing and manage to get that hard shot back on track. Another guy whom I am glad is here and if they can pair him up with a two-way D-man or an offensive one, looks to be a good top 4 D-man for years to come for this team.
This year— Alternate Captain Gleason started the year off poorly. Despite being Plus 1 on the first two months he was brutal. He was slow, out of position and just looked disinterested. The hiting of Muller really brought the best out of Gleason. In Dec. he turned a corner and in an instant he was the leader and defensive force I wanted him to be. They re-signed him in January to a 4 year 4 Mil per extension and he lived up to it the rest of the year. He plays every game every year and you know exactly what he will give you. Not a whole lot on the front end, but when paired with Allen, you know they will shut down just about any set of forwards in the league. A great top 2-3 D-man who is going to be one of the faces of this team for years to come.
Grade A- As I said above, he was real good the last two-thirds of the year. He’s just not a guy who can score even tho he’s got some passing skills and a hard shot. He was a real reliable guy on the back end and his plus 12 on the season was tops on the team, and he played in peak times and against the best the opposition had to offer. His 129 hits and 112 blocked shots were down from last year, but this is deceptive in a good way. I think Gleason was more defensively responsible and in better position b/c of the lowering of these stats and I think his game was ultimately better as well. I was pleased with his year and hope he’s got this in him for the next 4 years as well.
Outlook –> Depending on who stays (Allen?) or who they bring in, they are likely to lean hard on Gleason for the foreseeable future. He’s going to be on the top shutdown pair and either 2/3 on nights that they want to have one defensive and one offensive D man on the ice for each shift. He’s going to log big mins next year and I think he’s up for it. Look for a good year out of Gleason next year!
Acquired in the deal in which Rutherford moved “mistake” signing Tomas Kaberle to Montreal, Spacek brought some good veteran leadership to the blue line. He had some injury troubles but he was a great addition to the locker room and played hard when he was out there. He managed to put up 5 goals and 7 assists in his brief 34 games with the Canes as well.
Grade B This may seem a bit high for a guy who only played 34 games with the team. Yet, when he was there he was real good. He wasn’t in the front light all the time but he quietly put up those 5 goals while shooting 13.5%. He’s always in the right position when he is back there and as I keep saying, everyone in the locker room raves about his impact there.
Outlook–> He’s 38 and a Free Agent so his options are limited. He’s not going to get the 3.8 mil he previously made from anyone. I would be happy to get him at 1 mil or less for 1 more year, to keep his leadership on the team. But my prediction is going to be either him retiring or grabbing whatever money someone else might offer him. Highest bidder for one last year.
Last year’s grade D- My prediction/outlook for this year–> He’s an unrestricted free agent this year. YIPPPIE!!! I can only hope someone offers him a contract worth more then he’s worth so that Jim Rutherford won’t re-sign him. For some reason the Canes front office loves the guy, even tho he’s a waste of money. He made 4 million this year. Hey Jimmy, if you re-sign him for any thing more then 1.5 million you are complete moron. I would rather see more youngsters from the minors then this stiff.
This year. Well I knew it was coming, the Canes signed him for 3 years @ 4.5 mil per. And like I said Rutherford was a moron for doing so. He was hurt almost all season only playing in 30 games, and of those he left the ice early in 5 or more of them with injuries. I know concussions happen but he has a history of missing 10+ games a year and not finishing another 10+ each year. I am disgusted this guy is on the team. He might be a great player if he wasn’t so bad defensively and if he played 82 games, but I would rather him be another team’s headache.
Grade F Concussion or not, this year was an utter fail for Pitkanen. He might have played in 30 games but he was a BRUTAL minus 15 in those games!!! He’s a waste at the blue line defensively and his 5 goals don’t make up for it. He’s not much more then a PP specialist right now and that’s not worth 4.5 million. Neither is sitting on the IR either.
Outlook–> I think even the Canes know he doesn’t fit into their plans. There is rumblings that they might deal him to either free up the cap room for Allen or a power forward, or try and bring in a useful forward for him. The optimist in me says they will move him. The realist in me says no chance anyone takes him off our hands. We will be saddled with this stiff for 2 more years of injury prone bad defensive hockey.
Last year’s grade C+/B My prediction/outlook for this year–> Joslin is a restricted free agent. I think they will tender him a qualifying offer and see him sticking around. I don’t think Goose is top 4 material, but he is definitely a guy I can see them having at top 6. Depending on who they sign or bring up he is likely #6 and/or a healthy scratch/injury replacement on most nights. Keep up the good work Joslin I am rooting for you.
This year-– So they kept him around for 2 years @ 700K per year. He was exactly what I thought. A 6th D man who actually spent more time on the wing on the 4th line then he did on the blue line. He’s not a great forward but for a team that doesn’t roll four lines all that often it’s a sly way to get 7 D men on the game day roster for injury replacement or to have a couple of guys who are only there for the PP (Laviolette often did this with Wallin back in the 06 season). He was minus 15 in 44 games and had 35 pims. He throws his body around well enough and blocks shots well enough but he doesn’t do any one thing good enough for me to think he warrants a top 6 spot right now and he’s just not a good enough skater to get good ice time up front. He was just a bit of a filler player this year but he tries hard and does what the team asks of him.
Grade C I won’t bash on Joslin much at all. He’s the type of player I am and like on the team. You do everything the coach asks and put 150% into everything you do. I am rooting for him, but he just wasn’t that good. His lack of skating ability often had him out of position, and not even in the zone, when the opposition scored. When he DID play D he was a hard nosed D-man who brought the pain in front of the net. I am not sure there is room for a 3rd defense only guy on the back end if Allen is still here next year, and that might be why he found his way up front at times this year. Not good not bad, but just a fringe player this year at best.
Outlook —> To date Joslin is one of the six D on the roster. (Including McBain RFA but Not including Allen–UFA) However, I don’t see that continuing to the start of the season. I think they will get another D on the roster by then and force him to be either the 4th line winger or often scratched/injury replacement. He’s a decent insurance policy for the team to have tho and I am happy if he’s used in that role.
The 20 year old 2nd round pick from 2010 burst onto the scene this year. He had a great year as a top 4 D-Man and should have been on the ballot for the rookie of the year this year. He’s got a cannon of a shot from the point and by mid year was a staple on the point on the 1st PP pairing. An Avg sized (6′ 205) D-man but smart and still able to deliver his fair share of hits (113).
Grade B If it wasn’t for his streaky lack of defense (-16) and his learning curve in the NHL skating department I would have given him a slightly higher grade. He did seem quite at ease on the PP netting 5 PPG and 7 PPA, 12 of his total 22 points on the year. He scored a few one timers from the point that were such blasts that even Shea Weber would have been impressed. I want to see more scoring out of him even strength and also want to see him step it up in 12-13 defensively.
Outlook –> As you can see in his dominating defensive and offensive performance in the worlds right now, this kid is going to be good. He’s already the #4 defenseman on the team and he’s going to be a great player for the Canes for the next few years. I hope he continues to grow and be a huge presence both offensively and defensively for a long time.
Last year’s grade B- My prediction/outlook for this year–>Harrison made 500K last year, and is an unrestricted free agent. I don’t see too many teams that will throw big money at him, so I see Rutherford giving him a slight raise, maybe to 700K and him sticking around for another year to see if he keeps improving. I see him being the 5/6 D man on this team and playing most every night.
Well I couldn’t have hit the nail on the head any better then Harrison. He got the 700K and played as the 5/6 D man every night (72 games played). Harrison more-so then any other D-Man (Even Fault) surprised me. He had career highs in goals 9 Assists 14 Hits 117 and blocked shots 153. He looked real good at both ends of the ice and was even useful on those offensive odd man rushes he found himself on. He’s started to rise to the occasion on the back end and I can even see him chipping in with time on the top 4 next year.
Grade A- Sure he might not be a household name, but Harrison went from a guy who you thought would be cut at any time, to a guy you were happy having in the lineup each night. you don’t find too many guys who don’t make over a million dollars that can near the ten goal mark. Great value for the money and a team guy too boot. Great year Jay keep up the good work.
Outlook–> As much as I like Harrison, unless they get an offensive D man in here I think 12-13 will be a let down year. I think they might lean on him a bit too much do to how well he played this year. Not sure if he’s a guy who can put up those 9-10 goals when the rely on him to do so. He’s much more valuable when he does it when he’s expected to do nothing. I hope they get in a decnet 2 way D man keep Harrison as a 4/5th D man and he has a good year. It will be interesting to watch. But a good team player and hustler like him is good to have.
Conclusion: The D this year was decent and quite improved but still allowed a few too many goals. They were better mainly b/c they cleared out those pesky rebounds quite well at times and it lead to some great games. They still have a tendency to be lazy in front and not clear it out as well as I would like but baby steps I guess. A lot of the future will depend on what they do with Allen and Pitkanen, and who else they bring in or up. They have some good youth in the system and I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to look for the next iteration of McBain/Faulk for 12-13.
Finally, I leave you with a quote I had as a conclusion of last year—> Mark my words, if Pitkanen comes back next year they will NOT make the playoffs.
Boy sometimes I hate being right
–GeekJock
